According to Mamata Banerjee, UPA is non-existent and the Congress does not have capacity to take on the BJP.

At times, political maneuvers may prove counterproductive in politics. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee – a leader in a hurry – seems to be walking in that direction. Her recent political maneuvers suffer from lack of a well thought strategy and an unnecessary haste to race for the top slot in the country.

She has already hit a roadblock. The Shiv Sena has hit out against her campaign to isolate Congress from any possible joint opposition front to take on a strong Bhartiya Janta party in the 2024 general elections. Such a crude crusade may end in a fiasco ever before it could take off.

According to Mamata Banerjee, UPA is non-existent and the Congress does not have capacity to take on the BJP. Her campaign has infuriated the Grand Old Party.

Putting the record straight, the Congress has hit back, pointing out that Mamata was in the company of BJP thrice.

The Shiv Sena snubbed TMC chief, telling her point-blank that weaning out the Congress while creating an opposition alliance parallel to the UPA is akin to strengthening the ruling BJP and other ‘fascist forces’.

In an editorial in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’, the Sena also said that leaders like Mamata should focus on clearing her stand instead of creating confusion while talking behind curtains to various leaders.

Scenarios Which May Benefit Modi

Interestingly, Mamata’s virulent attack to discredit the Congress is being supplemented by her close advisor Prashant Kishore. He has taken on Rahul Gandhi, describing him as incapable of leading the joint opposition. Experts say that the campaign is designed to carve out a space for ‘Didi’ at the apex of Indian politics.

It seems to be an uphill task. Mamata is a seven-time MP. She has been a chief minister and union minister.

Naturally, she qualified for the top slot. But she fails to understand that politics is the art of the possible. Her area of influence is confined to West Bengal.

Didi recently engineered defections in Meghalaya where the Congress legislative party split vertically with two-time chief minister, Mukul Sangma and 11 other MLAs joining her TMC. Creating a token presence of her party in some of the states might have encouraged her but India’s geopolitical configuration warrants more.

For all we know, the BJP may be smiling at Mamata’s attempt to target Congress. It is an open secret that the ruling party considers the Congress as its main rival in the political arena. Apart from the communists, these two are the only national parties.

The genesis of the problem reclines in Sonia Gandhi’s failure to lead the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) owing to health reasons. Senior opposition leaders are hesitant to accept the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

Many a regional satraps believe that a weakened Congress does not have the capacity to take on the BJP, which has at its disposal a well-oiled machinery of RSS, vast resources and a devoted cadre of party workers.

The TMC has kept away from the Opposition meetings. It also did not sign the joint statement to protest the suspension of 12 Rajya Sabha MPs, two of whom belonged to the TMC. Mamata is also keen on displacing the Congress from its current position of the leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha. The rift in opposition ranks is visible.

Will it help Mamata to propel to centre-stage? On the contrary, it may isolate her party.

Flying Too High

Analysts opine that Mamata might be flying too high — that too on the basis of her victory in one state. Compared to it, pan-India presence of Congress in several states makes it relevant, logical and rational to be a part of any possible joint front. Its leaders, even those who don’t see eye to eye with Rahul Gandhi, believe that a joint opposition front minus Congress may be like a body without a soul.

The Congress has got its hold in states like Punjab (13 seats), Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (29), Chhattisgarh (11), Haryana (10), Himachal (4) and Uttarakhand (5) etc. The other opposition parties will have to leave these seats to Congress as other parties’ sphere of influence is limited in the country.

For example Uttar Pradesh has Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, Odisha has Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, Telangana has CS Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Andhra Pradesh has N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, Delhi has Aam Adami Party, Maharashtra has Maha Vikas Aghari alliance consisting of NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress and Karnataka has JD(S) and Congress.

Combined with a few other smaller states which constitute 339 parliamentary seats, this geographic spread facilitates the chances of winning a sufficient number of seats to form a government.

Banerjee has, for the time being, refrained from projecting herself as a possible candidate to snatch the post of chairperson of UPA from Sonia. She knows her limitations as a regional satrap who does not command any influence outside the boundaries of West Bengal.

A Political Realignment

Mamata had earlier met Sonia on ‘Chai Pe Charcha’ to discuss the political situation which can be attributed to efforts of Prashant Kishore who had exchanged views about possible political realignments in 2024 with senior leaders like Pawar etc. also.

But she avoided such a meeting this time though she did discuss her plan with some other leaders in Delhi including Subramanian Swamy, a Gandhi family baiter.

Under the guidance of political strategist Kishore, TMC has tried to spread its influence to Goa, Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam etc. But it could not make much inroad as BJP is already on a strong wicket in these areas. It was very visible in local polls in Tripura where it has mauled Mamata.

Mamata’s attempt to bypass UPA indicates the new strategy to rope in regional satraps like CS Rao, Jagmohan Reddy, Shiv Sena, Naveen Patnaik etc.

It might have direct blessings of Pawar, who nurses a long-cherished dream to be PM. His supporters feel that Pawar enjoys the stature on a national leader who can match Modi whereas Rahul does not fit the bill.

Due to Pawar’s role in establishing Shiv Sena in its premier position In Maharashtra by outsmarting BJP, Udhav Thackeray may stand by him to push him to lead a new opposition front.

Regional satraps may also accept Pawar as the new leader of the front as he is respected by them. But his party is insignificant as it is having limited presence even in his home state which weakens his bargaining power.

Secondly, Pawar’s role in joining late former Lok Sabha Speaker, P. A. Sangma to raise a foreign origin issue may act as a big stumbling block.

In this complex political scenario, opposition unity seems to be a mirage though compulsions may bring warring regional satraps together to forge a joint opposition front. Will the Congress, in such a scenario, try to have its own alliance of friendly parties?

Also Read:

Parliament Proceedings: Would You Please Walk The Talk, Mr Prime Minister?

Demystifying Demonetization — War on Black Money or Legalized Plunder and Organized Loot?

Need to amend laws like UAPA to provide for punishment for those who slap false

Why not 40 pc tickets for women in Punjab and elsewhere?

Punjab – How a deadly cocktail of Agri-Water-Energy nexus going to destroy it?

North Pole and the ideological conflict of RSS & Hindutva

Jallianwala Bagh Renovation – A Memoricide of Punjab

Politics of Symbolism: Dalit Chief Ministers in India