Indians are acquainted with ‘Pak Hand’ in abetting and promoting the terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir but now the ‘Chinese Hand’ has crept in Nepal politics which has beyond doubt helped survival of Nepal Prime Minister K.P.Oli. Otherwise, over allegations of manipulations by India, Oli was pushed to the corner to resign from his post by majority members of Standing Committee of his own party i.e. Communist Party Nepal (CPN).
Owing to Oli’s hectic confabulations and schmooze with various forces including arch rival Nepali Congress, PM Oli was constantly buying time to thwart the attempt of standing committee members like former PM and chairman of CPN, Pushap Kamal Dahal ‘Parchanda’, Madhav Nepal, JalanathDahal and so on who accused him of failing the people of the country besides mismanaging the COVID-19 crisis. Oli’s manipulations and decision to prorogue parliament coupled with frequent postponement of highest body meeting gave a temporary setback to his detractors to oust him on the floor of parliament.
Foreign policy experts opine that there were several factors responsible for the short lived survival of Oli which primarily related to naked and practical Chinese intervention which primarily pertained to stern warning to communists leaders to behave and avoid a split in the party.
Analysts and intelligence sources are unanimous over credible reports that ‘CHINESE HAND’ did work in preventing Oli’s rivals in CPN from ousting him.
The Chinese ambassador, Hou Yanqi made relentless efforts visible to everyone in Kathmandu especially when she met President Bidya Bhandari and Oli as well senior communists leaders to guide them to unitedly face current crisis.
She is being considered a motivating force behind the decision of Oli to opt for direct confrontation with India and redraw the map showing three territories on india viz. Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura in Nepal. This move had infuriated Indian government who described it as imaginary and unreal.
Some media reports say that Chinese ambassador gave Beijing’s dictate to senior communists leaders to remain amalgamated and avoid split in party at any cost which may benefit neighboring country (India).
Nepal cable providers are also unhappy over some Indian TV channels hence they have decided to black out these Indian news channels after the country saw public outrage over Indian media reports that made insinuations about Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and the Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi.
‘As Indian news channels violate the ethics of journalism, we have decided not to broadcast them except the Doordarshan, following the consultations among the service providers,’ said Dhruba Sharma, vice chairman of Mega Max TV, the largest independent cable television service provider in this country. Nepal federation of journalists and Nepal press council have also criticized these Indian tv channels which dragged Chinese ambassador in Nepali politics.
Experts say that others factors which contributed in the survival of Oli are:
1st, in an attempt to ward off allegation of splitting the Communist Party Nepal(CPN), Oli’s opponents held several rounds of dialogue with PM as they do not want to be seen as ‘saboteurs’.
The rival leader Prachanda tried to convince Oli to quit honorably but he has not relented which has led to postponement of standing committee meeting to July 17 and it could be a decisive jolt to close chapter of Oli as opponents have almost lost their patience.
2nd, the rival communists leaders are cautious about ‘anti India’ sentiments in Nepal hence they do not want to give an impression that they are sympathizers of Indian government especially when Oli had openly accused India of destabilizing him on June 28.
3rd, Prachanda–Dahal faction was suspicious of Oli from the beginning and suspected that he could go to any extent to cling to power and issue an Ordinance or split the party to connive with anyone hence yet another opportunity has been given to PM to quit with dignity.
4th, Oli is reportedly so desperate to continue in power that he met former PM and Nepail Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba to seek his party’s support in case there is split in CPN which has baffled many in Kathmandu. Nepali Congress is known for having cordial relations with India since decades but Oli is not bothered about it though he has dubbed India as political enemy which is bent upon unseating him.
5th, Analysts feel that the pandemic and natural disasters also prevailed upon the psyche of Oli’s opponents. In order to not rush through the No Confidence Resolution in the Standing Committee against Oli which might not be appreciated by the common people in Himalayan Kingdom hence they are permitting PM to exhaust all possible channels thereby forcing him to ponder over his complete isolation and quit to protect his prestige.
India is already upset with Oli for redrawing the map which has been done at the behest of China and Indian army chief had also expressed such apprehensions based on India’s assessment and evidences. The continuation of Oli will definitely widen the gap between Nepal and India.
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